September 19, 2011
Airbus sees demand for over 27,800 aircraft in the next 20 years
In the midst of troubled financial markets, Airbus foresees strong ongoing demand for commercial aircraft. According to its latest Global Market Forecast (GMF), by 2030 some 27,800 new aircraft will be required to satisfy future robust market demand. The combined value of the over 26,900 passenger aircraft (above 100 seats) and more than 900 new factory built freighters forecast by the GMF is US$3.5 trillion. As a result, by 2030 the global passenger fleet will more than double from today’s 15,000 aircraft to 31,500. This will include some 27,800 new aircraft deliveries of which 10,500 will be needed for replacing older less fuel efficient aircraft. The trend towards larger aircraft will continue, in order for the aviation sector to keep pace with future growth in demand.
People need and want to fly more than ever before. Over the next 20 years the aviation sector is expected to remain resilient to cyclical economic conditions as in the past. Airbus forecasts that Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) will grow by an average 4.8 per cent per year, which is equivalent to traffic more than doubling in the next 20 years. Factors driving demand for new aircraft include population growth with increasing wealth, dynamic growth in emerging economies, strong continued growth in North America and European markets, greater urbanization and a more than doubling in the number of mega cities by 2030. Drivers also include the ongoing expansion of low cost carriers, and the need to replace older less efficient aircraft with new eco-efficient models in established markets.
Geographically, over the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific will account for approximately 34% of demand, followed by Europe (22%) and North America (22%). By share of passenger traffic, Asia-Pacific will be the biggest market with 33%, followed by Europe (23%) and North America (20%).