November 15, 2013
Latin American airlines need over 2,300 new aircraft in next 20 years
According to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF), Latin American airlines will require 2,307 new aircraft between 2013 and 2032, including 1,794 single-aisle, 475 twin-aisle and 38 very large aircraft (VLA) worth an estimated US$292bn. Globally, by 2032 some 29,230 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at nearly US$4.4 trillion will be required to satisfy future robust market demand. With GDP currently growing above the world average (3.6% per year over the last two years, versus 2.6% for the world) socio-economic indicators forecast that Latin America’s middle class will grow to represent more than half of the population by 2032. Between 2012 and 2020, Latin America’s economy is expected to outperform the world average, largely thanks to Mexico and Brazil’s consumer spending. As a result, traffic growth in Latin America in the next 20 years is expected to outperform the world average of 4.7% with an annual growth rate of 5.2%. A growing middle class and increased consumer spending have led to air transport becoming more accessible throughout Latin America in the past 10 years, increasing 14% in terms of total number of cities served. Still, while almost 100% of the 20 largest cities in North America and Europe connect passengers with at least one flight per day, only 40% of Latin America’s top 20 cities do the same. As a result, in the next 20 years, intra-regional and domestic traffic is expected to grow at an impressive rate of 6.3%, becoming the biggest market for Latin American carriers.