November 14, 2014
Embraer forecast 700 new deliveries of up to 130-seat jets in Latin America over the next 20 years
Embraer Commercial Aviation forecasts that airlines in Latin America will take delivery of 700 new jets in the 70 to 130-seat segment over the next 20 years, representing 11% of the worldwide demand for the segment in the period. It is estimated that 63% of these units will support growth and 37% will replace older-generation aircraft. The 70 to 130-seat jet fleet will increase from the currently 280 units to 750 by 2033. With economic growth and investments leading to more regional integration, secondary markets are poised to drive the demand for new air travel. And for this, fleet optimization and right-sizing will be key. The first delivery of an E -Jet in Latin America occurred in 2005, when Panama’s Copa Airlines received an E190. Currently, nearly 200 E-Jets are in service with 8 operators from 7 countries in the region, where Embraer is the leader in the segment of jets up to 130 seats with 70% of market share. The region will report solid economic annual growth of 3.8% over the next 20 years based on a favorable external environment, political and macroeconomic stability, and more equitable income distribution. Per capita GDP will increase by 2.9% annually from US$9,050 to US$15,960 in the same period. The annual growth in demand for air transport has been robust over the last five years at 7.0%, a trend that is expected to continue over the next 20 years, when the region will grow 6.0% annually. Despite the dominance of larger aircraft, Latin America is mostly comprised by low and mid-density markets – 80% of which have traffic volumes up to 300 daily passengers. In 2013, over 50% of all intra-regional markets had one or fewer daily flights using narrow-body jets. This imbalance of capacity and demand can create inefficiency.