September 12, 2017
Bombardier Commercial Aircraft forecasts strong opportunities for 60- to 150-seat segment
Bombardier Commercial Aircraft has released its 20-year Market Forecast for the 60- to 150-seat segment. According to this new 2017-2036 Market Forecast, the 60- to 150-seat segment will be a catalyst to further growth, market penetration and airline profitability. The complete market is seen as 12,550 aircraft worth US$820bn, based on 2017 list prices. The 100- to 150-seat segment will represent 70% of the revenues, 6,800 aircraft valued at US$580bn, followed by the 60- to 100-seat segment with 5,750 deliveries worth US$240bn. After a trend to take larger aircraft in the recent years, airlines will look at taking smaller aircraft in the future. Some of the conclusions that this new Market Forecast is drawing include the fact that revenue growth is just one part of the profitability equation, and the traditional pursuit of reducing cost-per-seat with large aircraft is not necessarily yielding more profit for airlines. A focus on cost-per-seat instead of yield-per-passenger have resulted not only in lower profits for airlines but also in poor passenger experience. The forecast says small regional aircraft (20-60 seats) segment erosion will have a rippling upgrading effect; large regional aircraft (60-100 seats) will continue to dominate short-haul (up to 500 nm/926 km) routes; and small single-aisle aircraft (100-150 seats) will increase point-to-point flying on short- to medium-haul sectors and will allow airlines to fly new and thin routes at a profit. The forecast predicts that 86% of the current fleet in this segment will retire by 2036. North America and Europe will continue as the largest markets for new aircraft. Together they will take delivery of 5,700 aircraft or 46% of deliveries.
The forecast divides the world into nine geographical regions – North America, Europe, Greater China, East Asia and Oceania, Latin America (including Mexico), Russia and CIS, Africa, South Asia and the Middle East. There will be a strong demand for large regional aircraft from Asia/Pacific owing to growth, and renewal demand from Europe and North America. Key markets for the small single-aisle aircraft segment are North America, Europe and Greater China.