Honeywell forecasts quick rebound for business aviation

Honeywell’s 30th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasts up to 7,400 new business jet deliveries worth US$238 billion from 2022 to 2031, up 1% in deliveries from the same ten-year forecast a year ago. In 2021, surveyed business jet operators reported a sharp increase in used jet purchase plans, 12% above last year’s report, equivalent to 800 additional used business aircraft. Business aircraft manufacturers also announced a strong increase in jet orders, indicating that the industry has almost completely shaken off the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The increased demand for used jets is estimated at more than 6,500 units over the next five years, putting pressure on an already record low inventory and driving additional demand for new jets,” said Heath Patrick, President Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace. “Our latest operator survey results support continued private jet usage growth, as more than 65% of respondents anticipate increased business jet usage in 2022. Despite the ongoing challenges presented by the pandemic, flight hours have recovered and grown beyond pre-pandemic levels. The overall health of the business jet market is strong, and growth is expected to continue.”

Key findings in the 2021 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook include: purchase plans for used jets show an increase in this year’s survey. Operators worldwide indicated that 28% of their fleet is expected to be replaced or expanded by used jets over the next five years, up three percentage points compared with survey results from 2020. Business jet deliveries in 2022 are expected to be up 10% from 2021 in terms of units billed.

The longer-range forecast through 2031 projects a three percent average annual growth rate of deliveries in line with expected worldwide long-term economic growth.

Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are down two percentage points compared with last year’s survey. This can be attributed to uncertainty around the COVID-19 Delta variant at the time of the survey. The decrease is driven by fewer replacements in the fifth year; however, fleet additions grew by one percentage point.

The sharp increase in demand for used jets, coupled with a lower-than-ever inventory of used aircraft available for sale, will inevitably drive additional demand for new-build business jets. Among those with purchase plans of new business jets over the next five years, 29% of purchases are expected to occur in the next two years. This is just one percentage point lower than last year’s survey.

Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 14% of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet.

Larger-cabin, heavy aircraft classes are expected to account for more than 72% of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years.

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